Friday, July 17, 2015

Selections from DEL MAR for Friday July 17th

RACE 1
Maiden Claiming $80,000, 5 Furlongs
#4 Benesh (4-1)
This John Sadler colt makes his 3rd start of his career and despite a regression from his first race Sadler decides to keep the blinkers on.  His 7/17 drill from the gate was 3rd best of 76 works that day and may be a sign that the blinks have awakened him.  I’m expecting his best effort today
#3 Last One Standing (4-1)
This firster for Peter Miller looks ready to run first time out.  Hard to ever toss a Peter Miller 2 year old as he hits at an 18% clip with them
#7 D. Shifflett (3-1)
The sire of this 2 year old colt is Valid Expectations who is an A first time sire according to Brisnet Sire Stats winning at a 16% clip first time out with runners.  Trainer Mike Stidham is 20% with 2 year olds and he has enticed Bejarano to pilot this one today.  Looks live

RACE 2
Claiming $8,000, 6 Furlongs
#2 No Contingency (3-1)
Went gate to wire last time out for the first time in the Jeff Bonde barn.  Would expect similar tactics today and looks like he is sharp and on his game
#8 Half Dome Dude (9-2)
This 7 year old might have needed his last race to get him back into racing shape and I expect a much better effort today that could put him right in the thick of things
#7 Big Sugar Soda (8-1)
This one is now in the barn of Peter Miller and it looks like he is experimenting a bit with the addition of blinkers.  Miller is 17% first time blinks and he has put 4 works into the horse since his last effort to try and get him comfortable with the equipment.  A bit of a mystery horse
RACE 3
Maiden Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile and a Sixteenth
#11 Proud Captive (7-2)
Second time Lasix for the Ron Ellis trainee and a switch from turf to dirt which Ellis has an incredible 30% win rate with a strong ROI of $3.59.  Should be live
#9 Miltee (5-1)
Another one going from turf to dirt but unfortunately for trainer Simon Callaghan he is 0 for 23 when doing this.  He does score at a 26% clip with maiden claimers and the 3 year old gelding does have a nice series of works over the dirt.  This $230,000 purchase has definitely been a disappointment but against bottom level maidens he could graduate today
#8 Ghost of Navigator (12-1)
This is a first time gelding who has done his best work over the conventional dirt.  He exits 2 turf races up north where he failed to threaten.  Trainer has some great turf to dirt stats 26% and conventional dirt stats 30%.  Could wake up today

RACE 4
State bred Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
#2 Getoffmyback (3-1)
Had the daunting task of breaking from the rail in his debut and the horse outside of him did come in a bit out of the gate forcing Talamo to take him all the way back.  He ran on nicely down the lane and galloped out past the winner.  I’d expect him a tad closer to the pace today and be making his move around the turn.  If he moves forward could be tough
#7 Captain Akers (5-2)
Exits the same race as Getoffmyback and actually finished ahead of him last out.  Was right on the pace and took a brief lead in the stretch.  This one will definitely be part of the pace
#1 Tengas Ransom (4-1)
Like I mentioned earlier, it’s always a tough post to draw in your debut but trainer Jeff Mullins looks like he had his barn pointed to this meet.  This one might just be ready to fire first time after a great 4F work on July 5th

RACE 5
Optional Claiming $62,000/N2X, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
#8 Doodetta (6-1)
This will be my aggressive single in the Pick 5 along with my Double of the Day.  I think Drysdale has this one getting better and better and since her latest win she posted a blazing workout on July 5th that was second best of 74 works for the day.  There is a good chance she could be feeling full of herself.  Expecting another strong effort
#10 Pica (6-1)
Was claimed by the Eddie Truman barn in her latest win and Truman is dangerous with these types of horses. Also attracts Bejarano to ride so all signs pointing up for this one
#4 Hooligan (6-1)
Trainer Wesley Ward originally had 2 starters in this race but with the defection of the 1, he only has this one running.  He owns this 3 year old that should be on the pace

RACE 6
Filly Conditional Allowance $78,000, 6 Furlongs
#1 Scherzinger (3-1)
Threw in a clunker last time but Hollendorfer has given her some time to try and get her back in her best form.  Wouldn’t be shocked if she ran a big one today and Mike Smith is back aboard and take note he has ridden her in all 4 of her career wins.  Expecting much better

#6 Baruta (3-1)
Trainer Richard Mandella has two in this race and I’m using this one but not the other in my wagers.  I expect her to be out towards the front and possibly trying to take them gate to wire.  Going from turf to dirt where Mandella is successful 18% of the time
#5 Uzziel (2-1)
This is your morning line favorite and certainly has some back class.  Cutting back in distance so conditioning shouldn’t be any kind of issue with this one.  Certainly should be in the mix

RACE 7
Optional Claiming $80,000/N1X, 1 Mile (Turf)
#7 Zipessa (3-1)
Impressive effort first time out at Arlington Park as she won by over 6 lengths.  Her sire is City Zip who could run on any surface so her form should translate very well to the turf today.  Bejarano picks up the mount on the Chicago Invader.  Could create a name for herself today
#5 Sweet (6-1)
I expect her to take another step forward today for Richard Mandella and if she does she should be right there in the money
#3 Conquest Curlgirl (7-2)
This certainly is the class of the field and very well could wow the field today.  She comes out of a solid 3rd place effort in the Grade 2 Summer Oaks.  The only question mark is if her form will translate to turf.  Mystery horse

RACE 8
State bred Filly Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
#3 Golden Mamba (12-1)
This one goes from turf to dirt and might be the surface this one wanted all along.  Could move forward at a nice price
#4 Warren’s Honey Bee (12-1)
Flashed early speed on the turf in her April debut.  If she can sustain that speed for a bit longer today and she takes to the dirt she could give her backers a thrill close to the front
#2 Urloveneverfails (5-2)
Solid debut effort and certainly the one they’ll need to catch and beat today.  Hoping Golden Mamba or Warren’s Honey Bee freak on the dirt today
Here is how I played the card Today
RACE 1
.50 Pick 5 Wager
2,3,4,5,7,8/2,5,7,8/5,8,9,11/1,2,7/8= $144
RACE 5
Double of the Day for $30
8/1,6= $60
RACE 5
Pick 3 for $10
8/1,6/7= $20
RACE 7
Late Double for $10
5,7/3,4= $40
Total Investment today $264
Good Luck with all your selections
QRacing


 

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