Sunday, June 22, 2014

QRacing and a Sunday Pick 6 Carryover at Santa Anita

Here is how I'll be playing the Pick 6 carryover today at Santa Anita today.  I'll have a main ticket and a back up ticket.  I'll provide analysis below on the Main Ticket and break down the horses in order of preference for today.
Main Ticket is $1080
5/ 4,5,7/ 1,4,6/ ALL/ 1,3,7,8,9/ 1,8
Back up Ticket is $288
2,3,5,7/ 4,5,7/ 1,4,6/ 3,5/ 1,9/8
Total Investment is $1368

Now the break down of the horses on this ticket in order of preference
RACE 4
#5 Nikki Allyn (6-5)
Big dropper and a surface switch from turf to dirt for the Peter Miller barn.  Some might see this drop as a red flag but I actually think it's putting the horse where she belongs and should win.  The owners only paid $30,000 for this horse so if she wins and is claimed for 20k today then no big deal.  I think this horse will probably be 3-5 to start the sequence

RACE 5
#5 Heat Trap (5-2)
She was impressive last time going down the hill and today is stretching out to a mile.  I think there is a good chance Talamo and her find themselves on the lead in this one.  She might be tough to run down on the lead if she gets an easy lead

#7 Queen of the Sand (9-2)
She had some trouble in her US debut when she broke slow and the horse next to her veered in and basically wiped her and all chances of winning out.  It cost her a good 7-8 lengths out of the gate.  A big plus too is that Mike Smith picks up the mount so a HUGE rider upgrade from Valdivia.  She cuts back to a mile today and should have something left in the lane

#4 Oscar Party (3-1)
Horse is 0 for 5 at today's distance but note last time she ran at this level and at this distance she just missed by a length while posting a 90 beyer speed figure.  Based on the replay of her last race I think she was a little uncomfortable and wasn't noted in the form.  She should be much more competitive today

Race 7
#3 Story to Tell (3-1)
What an impressive maiden score when Talamo won in hand and basically never asked the horse to run.  Ultra impressive and I think this horse, although the ML second choice, will be your favorite when they go to post

#5 Wake up Nick (4-1)
I had a hard time separating this horses performance from Story to Tell.  The ease at which he won gave me a WOW moment and he won't need to improve much to find himself back in the winners circle. It appears Paul Reddam and Doug O'Neill have some nice 2 year olds this year and this could be another one of them

#7 Henry's Holiday (6-1)
I think the outside post today for the other O'Neill trainee is going to really benefit him.  This one has a shot

#2 Kristi's Copilot (4-1)
It appears Gryder might have found himself on a nice 2 year old colt for the Art Sherman barn.  Note his win and #5 Wake Up Nick's win were against State bred company but the California crop over the past few years has been strong, so that's no concern of mine. Certainly Capable

#4 Holiday Camp (2-1)
Some might be shocked to see me put the ML favorite and the Bob Baffert trainee as my 5th preference out of 6 horses.  To me I just wasn't that impressed with his debut win.  He earned the highest beyer in today's field at a 77 but I prefer others here.  Sure there is a chance I'm wrong but that's why I hit the ALL button since I'm not a fan of the favorite. (Although certainly not a toss out)

#6 Homer Matt (8-1)
Largest ML in the field and today is the debut for this 2 year old colt out of the Peter Miller barn.  They paid $625,000 for him so they definitely think he has a big future.  This horse is capable of firing a huge effort first time out but will it be enough to take down this tough group?

RACE 8
#1 Seduire (8-5)
Impressive debut win for the Hollendorfer trainee.  She breaks from the rail again and I expect Nakatani to try and go gate to wire.  She looked a little green to me in the stretch last time so I do think she has room to improve today.  If she doesn't switch leads down the lane, someone will probably come get her.

#9 Enchanting (9-5)
Ran second in her debut to Seduire but with added furlong today may help her run down Seduire.  Definitely has a big shot and wouldn't be surprised if she goes forward favored over Seduire despite losing to her last time

#7 Sea Moon (8-1)
A debut winner that didn't rack up a BIG beyer speed figure.  I think her win was much more impressive than the 49 figure she received.  Also, Talamo didn't get to the bottom of this one in career start #1.  The additional furlong should be no problem for her.  Maybe the shocker of the field.

#3 My Fiona (8-1)
Ran down a tired group of horses to win her debut.  She looked like she was really hard ridden to get going.  If this race totally breaks down up front this could be the one coming late

#8 Robo Girl (8-1)
Broke her maiden almost 2 months ago and should be part of the early speed.  She may need a lot to go her way today to win.

RACE 9
#8 Willy Be Wild (7-2)
Gets Lasix for career start #2 today and I think breaking from the outside post will be a huge advantage for him today as he was a bit bothered inside of horses last time.  A BIG chance to move forward.

#1 Robert E. Lee (5-1)
Broke sharp last time out but was really not allowed to run by the jock that day.  I think it cost him any chance at winning.  Encouraging to see a switch to jockey Kent Desormeaux who should carve out a better trip for this one today.  I don't love horses breaking inside down the hill but I think this one is versatile enough to either put on or close to the lead or take back and make one big run.

Best of Luck out there to all that are playing today!
JimmyQ
@JimmyQVegas