Sunday, August 18, 2013

My BEST BET for Sunday at DEL MAR

August 18th

Eighth Race
#5 Bella Viaggia (4-1 Morning Line)
This is my best bet on the card and I think is in a great spot today to run the best race of her life.  I love that Gary Stevens takes over the mount as in my opinion he is the best rider on the Del Mar grounds.  Trainer Mike Puype should have this horse totally cranked today.  Small field where we realistically might get 5/2 or 3/1 but I'll take it. 

Hope we are celebrating with a cold one...QRacing Style

All the Best
JimmyQ

Saturday, August 17, 2013

Money Making Opportunites at Del Mar

August 17, 2013

On to a 10 race card for Saturday that looks highly competitive.  I'm going to get right into my picks and analysis
BEST BET ON THE CARD
Race 10 #2 Star Vesta

First Race
#7 Ginger Tap 
She stretches out making her 3rd career start and trainer Neil Drysdale has been nice and patient with her, which he is known to do.  She is bred to love the extra distance and if she steps forward today she is a winner

#1 Indygo F M A 
This will be the second time she has worn blinkers and I do like that since her last effort where she ran 2nd that trainer Peter Eurton has put 6 works into her to allow her to get better used to her equipment change.  Looks like they are working to keep her focused

#5 Playful Humor 
The other Drysdale trainer horse.  They shipped her up north for her last start looking for a softer spot to break her maiden but instead she disappointed as the betting choice favorite.  The blinkers remain off and she should run better today

Second Race
#7 Meinertzhageni 
An impressive debut for this 2 year old filly where she ran a distant second to a much the best winner.  Bonde turns right around and runs her back 2 weeks later so he must have been really encouraged of how she came out of the race

#4 Singleinthelast 
Second start for trainer Eric Kruijac.  Blinkers go on for this filly and Kruijac is 24% with this move.  Should move forward today

#6 Cal Gal 
Ran a very good first race where she was very close to the pace.  Doug O'Neill puts 2 endurance works into her and you must respect anything he does right on as the barn is rolling

Third Race
#8 Bench Beauty 
The down side is she is 1 for 20 but the upside is she really looks to be improving and working in the right direction.  She stretches out today and I think this is exactly what she wants to do and will find herself back in the winners circle today.  Also with Joe Steiner aboard we will get a fair price

#2 Chesnut Moon 
This horse drops down into this level and really should enjoy this class relief.  She is 0 for 4 when going a mile but they were always against tougher than she'll face today

#1 Hard Buns 
This is your morning line favorite who graduated quite easily in her last start.  Note this was when the track was favoring speed quite a bit so I don't know how much you can validate horses that went wire to wire in the opening week but you must respect as Bejarano rides back

Fourth Race
#8 Yes Yes Yes 
This colt out of City Zip has been working beautifully over the track.  Mike Smith aboard for this firster obviously shows he has talent

#2 Can the Man 
This 2 year old is working lights out for Bob Baffert and take note if he wins and runs big he has also been training in company with another colt that Baffert sends out in the sixth race

#3 Maximinus 
Some good works for this 2 year old and with Baze in town for the Del Mar Oaks Bonde is able to get him to ride this firster.  The two of them are 32% together when the team up but that damage is down up north

Fifth Race
#5 Kid Edward 
This might as well be a stakes race with the lineup we have in this field.  It is a very difficult race to handicap but I'm going with the lightly raced 6 year old for James Cassidy.  He will need to move forward today to beat this group but more than capable

#8 Rock Me Baby 
This is a super fast 4 year old gelding and probably your post time favorite.  He always seems to get pounded at the window so you typically don't get much of a price on him.  My only question is if turf really is his best surface

#6 Bio Pro 
Shocked last time at 19-1 and he continues to improve.  While many in this field seem to be in the back half of their careers and on the downside this guy looks to be improving which is an excellent sign.  Should get double digits again today

Sixth Race
#3 Little Shack 
This is the second time out for this colt out of the Hollendorfer barn.  Blinkers added for start #2 and the addition of apprentice rider Orozo means they might be looking for speed.  Take note Orozco is 4 for 9 this year when Hollendorfer calls on him

#4 New Year's Day 
Another impressive Baffert horse who was working in company with the other colt from the fourth.  Take note if his horse runs big in the 4th probably a good indication this was is equally as live.  The down side is the horse will probably be a short price if that is the case

#5 My Secret Affair 
Interesting that Rafael Bejarano shows up for trainer Mark Glatt b/c when he does it usually means Glatt has a live one.  Workouts have been dazzling some all signs say this one is a runner

Seventh Race
#11 Germany Bay 
This one has really work up after some time off last year to get healthy and maybe even gelded.  The outside post should give LeParoux the versatility to pick his trip

#8 Red Creme 
This one is sharp right now and looks like he could sit just off the pace if he didn't go to the lead.  A solid work pattern for this 5 year old gelding

#5 Master Cip 
Blinkers come off today on this 4 year old colt as he changes barns back to Bob Hess where he was early in his 3 year old career.  He seems to be a much improved horse since Hess last saw him.  This is the first time racing on the Del Mar surface but works have been very encouraging

Eighth Race
#1 Wishing Gate  
This 3 year old filly is moving in a great direction and seems to be improving not only in the morning but in the afternoon.  She should stalk the pace and try to outfinish them in the lane and this is exactly jockey Garrett Gomez's strength so he migh be a perfect fit for her

#4 Emotional Kitten
Another filly who has been improving drastically and you have to take note of that last effort as she just lost to an exceptional filly in Emollient. 

#7 Doinghardtimeagain  
Looks to be a pace presence in this field and will be a decent price.  Bejarano rides for Hollendorfer here where they are 31% together.  We'll find out how good she is today as 4 of her 5 wins have come against statebred company.

Ninth Race
#1 Say's Who  
Third start for this Peter Miller trained filly.  Second effort without the blinkers and she seems to be ready to take another step forward today

#8 Heaven and Earth  
You must respect any firster out of the Hollendorfer barn and he has been ultra patient with her.  LeParoux aboard for Hollendorfer and they strike at 30% together. Respect

#4 Feature Attraction  
Second time out for Mike Harrington where in her first effort she was off slow and always trailing the field.  If the light bulb comes on today she would also light up the tote board as she'll be a giant price

Tenth Race
#2 Star Vesta  
You have to love the patience Hollendorfer had with this one and basically running her to the rules meaning she was entered last time in a claiming 12,500 but wasn't for sale that day she she had been off since last September.  This was a rule adopted a while back to encourage horseman to give banged up horses the necessary time off to heal.  Regardless, she won by 7 that day and today he enters her in a protected situation and has been working awesomeBEST BET on the card for me

#10 Acenda  
This one is sneaky to me and in her second start of the year stretches out and returns to the Del Mar main track where she did break her maiden last year.  Sneaky one

#1 Corlett Drive
John Sadler has freshened this one up a bit while putting several solid works into her.  He keeps her going long today which is a good indication that she'll run better than her last where she disappointed as the race time favorite

Best of Luck out there today

JimmyQ  

Friday, August 16, 2013

BEER $$ Anyone?

Friday August 16th

A 7 race card on this Friday evening at Del Mar.  Some opportunities to build our bankroll and make a nice score heading into the weekend.  Now on to my selections.

First Race
#3 Hey Yup  He is a 4 year old gelding who is 1 for 12 lifetime and it's kind of an oddity that he won his first lifetime race and has yet to find himself back in the winners circle.  Today could be that day and I think he is versatile enough to be sitting close to the lead or just a little bit off.  He has 3 lifetime races over this surface and although he is 0 for 3 his best career beyer comes here at Del Mar.  Should be right there at the end

#2 Hustlin Nu  Doug O'Neill claimed this horse at this same level last time out when he ran 5th as the beaten favorite.  O'Neill put a strong 4F work into him a week ago and this barn has started to roll as of late so you have to respect

#8 Salah Champ  This will most likely be your post time favorite.  Breaking from the outside post Talamo should be able to position this horse just off the pace and try and make a big move turning for home.

Second Race
#8 Great Friends Rule  All the also eligible horses looked like the best horses in this race but with none of them drawing in this one looks to be the one to beat with his speed from the outside.  If he clears could be tough to catch unless someone else goes with him

#5 Old Man Lake  He ran an eye popping best career effort and shocked over the grass at 18-1 last time out.  He'll be a shorter price today and if he runs back to the last effort he'll be right there with this group

#3 Field Report  Mike Smith knows this horse well as he has been on him in both his starts this year.  Unfortunately, he likes to settle for 2nd as he has 6 seconds in only 12 career starts.  Probably will be in the mix again at the line

Third Race
#4 Sky Forever  This was a difficult race for me with many new faces joining a group of horses that don't look like standouts.  This 2 year old filly is dropping out of Statebred MSW company and is adding the blinkers today.  I noted that the works seemed to get quicker after the addition of the blinkers and it wouldn't take much of an improvement to win today

#9 Yodel Up a Storm  I think this will be your heavy favorite.  Sadler claimed this one at this same level of 50k last time and was very patient with her after she lost by a nose.  He has since given her a few weeks off and then 5 nicely spaced works into her.  She is probably ready to run another nice race today.  Could be tough

#1 Warrens Lil Margie This is my hunch play and probably a price play in this situation.  Only 3 published works for this 2 year old filly debuting and they were all long works which tells me she was breezing privately before hitting the track.  Apprentice Sigala gets the mount and trainer Craig Lewis is good with firsters.  Sneaky

Fourth Race
#2 Iconic Spirit  This 0 for 8 maiden has 2 career starts over the synthetic surfaces and ran 2 of his best races on a synthetic surface.  The only draw back was that both of those efforts were at Hollywood Park where it's a cushion track, where Del Mar is a polytrack surface.  He has worked ok over this surface so I do think he'll handle it just fine.  Looking for him to graduate today probably as your second or third choice

#9 Sealington This one probably has the most upside of the group meaning he has the greatest shot of improvement in the field.  Only one career start which was a sprint where he was closing well and maybe just wants to go longer.  Trainer Leonard Powell has been lethal at this meet with a small group of starters.  Another encouraging sign that LeParoux stayed aboard for lifetime start #2.

#8 Humor Me  Bob Baffert saddles the probable favorite in this one.  Stretching out for the first time and probably finds himself on the lead.

Fifth Race
#7 Jim's No Preacher This one woke up last time against much easier but did so while winning in hand.  The addition of blinkers and getting this horse back to the synthetics where he is 4 for 5 lifetime was the key.  This one will be ultra tough in my opinion.  The only danger is if he gets caught in a speed duel

#4 Romance Is Sosa  
You must respect these connections and notice they lost this horse last year for $16,000 and dipped back in and got him for $5,000 earlier in the year and since them have kept moving him up the ladder. He is protected today which is a great sign

#6 Brown Boss  He has been moving in the right direction but must improve again today to beat this group. 

Sixth Race
#10 Pontchatrain
Love the direction this one is going.  Looking for him to improve again and looks mighty dangerous if he moves forward again on the turf today where he won convincingly last out

#1 Oscar Party  Mike Smith rides this one for the first time which you have to respect him as a money rider.  They had high hopes for this one at 2 when she ran at prestigious meets such as Saratoga, Keeneland, and then in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Filly Turf Mile.  She took a step forward in her last when she ran 3rd in a G3.

#3 Macha  She cuts back to a Mile today and Hollendorfer's go to guy Rafael Bejarano reunites with this filly where he won on her 3 back .  Can't rule this one out

Seventh Race
#2 I'm No Patsy  Trying to beat the heavy chalk with this Statebred MSW dropper.  Gutierrez stays aboard for this big time drop and if we get 8-1 like the ML that is more than a fair price

#1 Hair on Fire  Going to be a BIG favorite in this spot as she is the class of the field and the one who owns the biggest numbers.  This drop today simply looks like an attempt to win a race but you never really know.  Trainer Vladimir Cerin is 43% in these spots

#4 Magic Maya  Price Play in the last as this one is 15-1 on the Morning Line.  Stretches out today and has lasix for the second time.  Could have just needed a medication adjustment and is probably going to be pressing the pace today.  Sleeper who should run much better than her last.

Good Luck to everyone playing the races today and I hope you're able to make some money using my picks and analysis.  I'll be back later in the weekend with another blog.

All the Best,
JimmyQ

Questions or comments I can be reached at JimmyQRacing@yahoo.com

Friday, August 9, 2013

Let's do some Damage at DEL MAR QRacing Style

Friday August 9th, 2013

No time for small talk....on to the 8 race card!

First Race
#2 Hagibis  I love lightly raced horses for one reason, the connections obviously know there are some physical issues so they must be careful to not push too hard on the horse, but they also must have them ready to fire on first asking as there is no telling how long they can keep the horse at the track.  This 5 year old ridgling has only 2 career starts and the last was in 2011?!?!?!  Yes I'm betting a horse that hasn't been to the track since 2011 but I'm encouraged that Puype protects him today despite not running in over 2 years

#1 Exotic Slew  This horse looks primed to run a good race.  Should sit midpack off the pace and if Bejarano gets what could be a pace duel up front this could be the one running best late

#7 Toledo Eddie  Trainer Craig Dollase cuts him back to a sprint after going a mile last time on the turf against similar.  He adds the blinkers to try and keep him closer to the pace since they're only going 5F.  You must respect jockey Victor Espinoza on the turf

Second Race
#1 Katy's Star  This is your 5-2 ML favorite and my top pick in the race.  If she runs back to the last outing she could be very tough here. 

#6 Out of Thin Air  She fits just fine with this group and Alex Bisono has been on board for all 6 career starts.  Class relief here could be just what she needs

#3 Stylish Sound  Sometimes I look at the form and just say why the hell is the trainer doing what they're doing today and the 3 is one of those horses and why I'm including her.  Last time she broke her maiden at the $40,000 level going long and today shortens the horse up to 6.5?  Hmmm...long works so she is healthy..I don't know what to do with her, so I'm including her!

Third Race
#9 Behind the Bossman  This is probably my single in the pick 5 at 5-2 ML but I think the horse will be more like 4-5 or 6-5.  This drop to me looks like a group trying to win a race at Del Mar and get their picture taken.  They only paid $32,000 for the colt so if he is claimed they make $8,000 more than they paid for him and they could get the winner's share of the purse

#2 Easy Topper  I'm not tossing trainer Steve Miyadi as I think he is dangerous right now.  Even though he is 1 for 12 he has 3 seconds and 3 thirds and has been placing his beautifully.  If this horse is live could pull the upset

#7 Znelle  Comes out of a MSW race at Plesanton and drops in here for 40k.  The drop makes perfect sense as he is a gelding and they only paid $30,000 for him.  Not impossible and might just want to include behind the 9 in the exacta

Fourth Race
#9 Matto Mondo  If Trainer Dallas Keen wins this race they might have to point him in the direction of the winner's circle at Del Mar.  He seems to often look overmatched on paper but not in this spot.  He also gets Bejarano to pick up the mount.  I think Keen wins his first of the meet on this 7-2 ML shot

#3 Olympic Blue  Ran well at a huge price opening week of the meet in the Oceanside stakes.  Goes longer today and tries to improve again today.  I think the 9 is more accomplished than this improving horse but not out of the question

#8 Casa Cambio  Peter Miller sends out what appears to be a very sharp horse in this spot.  Victor on the grass must be respected.  Wouldn't take much of an improvment to win today

Fifth Race
#1 Toss the Dice  My upset pick of the day and what a name for a horse for a Vegas guy! (Even if I'm not a name player, although Grandma Marge might have $2 to win on the horse down the street at the casino)  This 4 year old gelding is 10-1 on the ML and I think is sitting on a big effort and breaking from the rail I'd like to see Talamo get the horse involved in the race early and send

#2 McKenzies Way  Big drop in this spot after a sharp workout on July 29th.  Horse has a 4 sale tag on his back

#3 Nextdoorneighbor  Trainer Ron Ellis Claims this horse over 2 months ago and was very patient in giving him a freshening and spotting him with a chance to win today. Big shot if he is ready

Sixth Race
#11 Harlan's Trick  She is 5-1 on the ML and must get back to the way she was running in May to win today.  A couple good recent works suggest she might be ready to do just that.  I expect the horse to be sitting closer to the pace today than her last effort

#1 Full of Spice  Chantel rides for Peter Miller here and I can't ignore that she seems to be getting some live mounts at the meet.  Some nice AM drills for this one and this race looks like a fresh face could win it

#4 Amanda  3 start of the career for this filly.  Again it wouldn't take a great improvement for her to win here today.  Although Talamo is off to a slow start at 8-1 ML this horse has some value

Seventh Race
#1 Magical Band  I think this filly is sitting on a huge effort and at 5-1 ML might be my best best of the day.  Very very dangerous

#5 Shumoos  Last time out has a disappointing effort but Trainer Ben Cecil keeps the blinkers on which again raises my eyebrows.  A couple good works since the last race so I think she bounces back today and runs well

#3 Kinz Funky Monkey She is improving and heading in the right direction.  If she takes another step forward she is going to be right there

Eighth Race
#4 Rest Lake  3rd career start for this filly for trainer Peter Eurton.  This will be the lowest level she has ran at but probably the spot she belongs.  I expect this horse to be very close to the pace and possibly on the lead

#6 Kevin's Kool Kat  Won't take much improvement for this filly to win today.  First time Mike Mitchell has trained the horse and if he has her ready off a lengthy layoff lookout

#8 Shamefully Sinful  15-1 bomber ridden by bug rider Sigala who did quite a nice job riding at Lone Star this spring.  He has 6 second place finishes in 16 mounts at the meet and this horse isn't far off based on numbers.  Would be a shocker but not impossible


Best of Luck today at Del Mar
Any questions or comments I can be reached at JimmyQRacing@yahoo.com

All the Best,
JimmyQ

Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Is Today the Day QRACING makes the BIG SCORE?

August 7th, 2013
Del Mar Pick 6 (Races 3-8)
Today is one of those days as a horseplayer that even though it's a midweek card and the races might not be of a super high caliber, they still mean a lot to the player, because of the possibility of a lucrative payout.  Going into today the Del Mar Pick 6 has a carryover of $265,129 and the pool should reach close to $1.5 Million when all is said and done.  I'm going to do my best and give my top 3 picks and analysis.  Also, before the Pick 6 goes off I will also tweet out how I played the sequence for those that want to follow along.

Third Race
#6 Spring Breeze  This Jeff Bonde trained horse looks like she is sitting on a huge effort to me.  Last out she ran her career best turf number while sprinting and finishing 2nd in a $5,000 starter allowance at Colonial Downs.  This was her first start while being trained by Bonde and I'd expect her to move forward in start #2 for him.  She has 2 zippy works over the Del Mar surface so to me it looks like all systems ago. 

#2 Metaxa  Horse was claimed last out for $16,000 and bumped up to the $20,000 price today.  She looks to me sharp right now and if there is one concern is that she likes to run second finishing second four times in 8 starts this year.  Should be on on near the lead

#7  Addendum  Bejarano shows up riding for Vladimir Cerin today after riding Metaxa in her last.  Cerin drops the horse in for $20,000 today after running her for $25,000 tag last time out when she ran 3rd.  Most likely will take plenty of $$ at the window with the presence of Bejarano. 

Fourth Race
#6  Hugh Knew  This looks like one of the more wide open races to me.  This 2 year old filly will be stretching out and on the turf today after 2 subpar efforts sprinting evenly where she got in tight quarters in both starts.  Sometimes horses like to find trouble and I'm hoping she is not that type and going long and the surface change might be all she needs to wake up

#4  Amy Jane  Showed speed sprinting on the turf at Hollywood Park so I find it interesting that trainer Peter Miller adds blinkers as he stretches her out.  Typically that means she might show more speed and if Gomez can't settle her speed she could be absolutely quarter horsing up front.  Peter Miller is a good enough trainer he must have a great reason for adding the blinks.  This horse looks dangerous on paper

#3  Sierra Electrica  Comes out of the same turf sprint as Amy Jane and she too appears to be a filly with a lot of talent and should handle the stetchout just fine.  Trainer Kristin Mulhall and jockey Joe Talamo have done some great work together this year at a 20% clip.  She wouldn't have to improve much to win this wide open race

Fifth  Race
#3 Tribal Tattoo  This Doug O'Neill trained horse drops from Filly Statebred $50,000 Maiden Claiming into open $30,000 MCL today.  Last time a few weeks ago she flashed speed and gave away after taking a little action at the window.  She had another zippy work about 10 days ago and I tihnk she is going to be ultra tough today against a short, weak field

#6 Union Blaze  This is the new face on the scene and against a weak group sometimes if the new shooter just runs a little bit they are going to be right there.  This horse is bred to take to the synthetic surface and has a nice series of drills.

#4 Sunrisa Sunrisa    
 Walter Solis drops the horse in for $30,000 today after a short freshening.  It's appealing to me that he leaves the blinkers on her today and maybe she'll give a better effort of herself today

Sixth Race
#3 Charm the Maker  At 6-1 on the morning line this is a bit of an upset pick for me but I think a combination of cutting back to a sprint for her return and getting back on the Del Mar surface where she is 1 for 1 might be a nice combination for her.  She will probably be trying to make a huge move around the turn and heading for home.  There appears to be enough pace in the race to set up for her if Ron McAnally has her fit and sharp for her return

#9 Minds Eyes  Lightly raced 4 year old for John Sadler seems to be sharp and improving.  She just missed sprinting over the Del Mar turf a few weeks ago.  Jockey Julien LeParoux back aboard today after a good workout at Hollywood park a week ago

#4 Tribal Gal  This is my longshot speed horse at 15-1 on the ML in case someone were to get loose up front.  She broke her maiden here last year at Del Mar taking them gate to wire and now exits her best career dirt effort as she finished 3rd in a small stake at Pleasanton.  This horse really only has one running style and that is to go to the lead and try and steal it.  Martin Garcia is an aggressive rider and expect him to quarter horse her to the lead

Seventh Race
#2 Concave  This filly makes career start #2 for Doug O'Neill today.  In her first she dazzled over the turf at Hollywood Park winning by over 3 lengths.  One long work over the Del Mar surface since that Maiden score.  The only question seems to be if 6.5 furlongs will be a bit too long for her

#5 Stop Smiling This horse also broke her maiden first asking and at a nice 15-1 price for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer.  She may have even surprised the barn that day, but now they realize they may have a real runner on their hands.  She will probably sit a very nice stalking trip and try to pass many of them late

#4  She's a Tiger  This is one fast filly but I'm afraid she might be her own worst enemy today as she will try and engage with the other speed horse in the race.  Bonde may just hope that she is faster than the 1 horse but to me that seems bad news for her to get a clear lead so I'm going to try and beat her today.

Eighth Race
#10 Sri's Red  First timer running under Jerry Quinn's name who is Carla Gaines assistant. All Gaines horses will run under Quinn's name until she returns from her 30 day medication suspension.  This filly has been working beautifully and I think she catches a group of horses where several horses have had more than enough chances to break their maidens.  If she is ready first time, it will probably also show up at window.  Watch the tote action but looks super LIVE

#9 Bridle Plan
She has only one lifetime race and actually ran a nice 4th sprinting over the turf at Hollywood Park.  She should like the switch to the Del Mar synthetic surface and it wouldn't take much improvement today to be getting her picture taken.  Might fly a little under the radar running for a small barn with an 8% rider in Saul Arias

#4 That's a Bingo  Been off since the end of May but today returns to sprinting and has the addition of blinkers.  At 15-1 this horse might just be worth taking a chance on against this less than stellar group.  Could light up the tote board

Good Luck today if you are playing the Pick 6 or just playing the Races.  Thank you for reading!  Questions or comments feel free to email me at JimmyQRacing@yahoo.com

All the Best
JimmyQ