Sunday, July 28, 2013

QRacing Delivers on Sundays

July 28, 2013

Yesterday was one of those days where I was just seeing the ball very clearly.  My top selection was able to find themselves in the winner's circle in 5 of the 10 races and my 2nd choice in Race 7 got there at 19-1 so all in all that will be very hard to follow up.  I was able to catch a nice double to Kettle Corn and then close out the late Pick 4 for $1399.  I also had the longshot on my ticket that the 6 caught at the wire and those last few jumps were the difference in cashing for $6900 and $1399.  Well that's part of the game and the best horse won the race, so I can't complain.  Now we turn our sights to today's 10 race card as we close out the week at Del Mar

First Race
#4  Tiz the Key  I will try to beat the favorites in here with this first timer out of the Richard Mandella barn. The horse is bred beautifully and should like the Del Mar surface.  This isn't the toughest group, so if she is ready to run she could win first asking

#1  Secret Compass  Probably the horse to beat in this field.  She adds blinkers for career start number two for the Bob Baffert barn.  Unlike most of Baffert's runners this horse seems to have some gate difficulty and came from off the pace last time to run 4th as the beaten favorite.  Baffert has put 2 works into the horse since her debut but I'm going to try and beat her as I think the gate difficulty could leave her with a lot to do

#2  Abide in Me  Exits the same race as the 1 here and was a good first effort running second.  The addition of Lasix today might be enough to get her picture taken

Second Race
#8  Disarm  John Sadler started slow at the meet but over the past week or so I don't think there is a trainer doing a better job of spotting his horses.  He probably is one of the best knowing the condition book and what races are coming up.  This 3 year old gelding takes a signifigant drop here today but he broke his maiden at the $30,000 level so this really is where I think the horse belongs

#7  The Whole Deal  Steve Knapp takes a pretty big drop for this 6-1 ML shot and should be close to the pace.  There are other speed horses so it might be Maldonado's best option to sit just off and try and run them down late

#3  Laugh At Life  Doug O'Neill claimed this one last time from the John Sadler barn.  He has never run over a synthetic surface but the horse does have a nice work over the Del Mar surface about 10 days ago. 

Third Race
#3  Heat Du Jour  To me this is just a pretty weak race and this filly was sprinting last time on the turf where she ran evenly all the way around the track.  Today stretching her legs out might be just what she wants to do.  It won't take much to have a chance against this state bred group

#5  Cocunut Cream Pie  This will be your post time favorite and the horse just missed last time as the favorite over at Hollywood Park.  Talamo back aboard today and Mullins has put 2 good works into her since the last race

#6  Vanilla Shake  This is nothing more than taking a price in a bad race.  This O'Neill runner is 12-1 ML and was almost 20-1 in her debut when she ran 7th and was vanned off.  The horse must of checked out fine as she was back on the track working out a few weeks later.  Career start #2 may be a chance for her to improve

Fourth Race
#7  Mudflats  5-1 on the ML and a few things are appealing to me about this 3 year old gelding.  The horse has a win at the tricky distance of 7 furlongs and the horse removes the blinkers in which he has had 4 good works without them since his last race where he threw in a clunker at Keeneland

#2  No Contingency  Blinkers come back on for this 8-1 ML horse.  I look for Nakatani to be aggressive and try and have this horse either in the lead or on the pace.  If for some reason he does find himself on the lead he might be hard to catch

#8  Derringer  Another well placed Sadler horse and the outside post should allow Bejarano to make the decision to shove this horse to the lead or sit just off the pace

Fifth Race
#9  Arraignnment  Did I mention Sadler is placing his horses beautifully?  Well I think this one will be very tough to beat today.  Hasn't been seen at the races since May 27th but the steady and long work tab shows me the horse is sound.  Also this is the first time he has tried the Del Mar surface but I think he'll take to it just fine

#6  Whipstock  The 6 year old gelding is very lightly raced and I think if anyone is going to beat the 9 it just might be this horse.  I think he'll show speed stretching out. Dangerous

#3  Only the Gold  This horse found himself in a G3 last time out and had no business being entered in such a race as he ran last at close to 80-1.  Horse is back in against cheap claimers where he belongs and he should get the distance just fine.  Will need a form reversal but totally possible

Sixth Race
#2  Gnarly Dude  I find myself backing another Sadler horse here.  I think this 5 year old gelding is very very interesting.  They claimed the horse in his last start for $32,000 and bring him back protected today.  The horse removed the blinkers 4 starts ago and has won 3 of those races.  The only race he didn't win he stumbled and lost the rider at the start so looks like a different horse since the equipment change

#8  Marchman  At 12-1 this horse looks to be blazing fast and will shoot right to the lead.  Well bred for the surface and distance and Quinonez is probably going to try and fly around the track

#5  Gonna Fly Now  The other Sadler horse and Talamo appears to have chosen to ride this one over the other which he also had ridden last time. 

Seventh Race
#7  Blingismything  She was a beaten favorite last time out and found herself with a little to much work to do in the stretch.  The turf at Del Mar is usually a little friendlier for closers so she could be flying late

#10  Pontchatrain  First start over the turf and first time stretching out.  She is moving in the right direction and Julien LeParoux back on board today for Tom Proctor

#1  Somethingabouther  This is my clunker upper horse.  She seems to have improved slightly since stretching out past a Mile.  Might not be good enough to win but could be there for minor awards

Eighth Race
#2  Goldencents  He has been off since the Preakness but the horse has been working lights out.  Notice he broke his maiden sprinting in career start number one here at Del Mar.  He might just be a natural sprinter and this might be what he was meant to do all along.  When you have a talented 3 year old you are almost forced to go down that Triple Crown trail until the horse shows you he can't handle the competition or distance.  I think he will actually get the lead from Comma to the Top which is a scary thing to say

#5  Jimmy Creed  If Goldencents & Comma to the Top duel up front Jimmy Creed might be the scary one down the lane.  Threw in a clunker last time and there are reports he threw a shoe out of the gate so we'll cautiously give him a pass for the last effort

#4  Comma to the Top  This horse is just a fighter and runs his heart out every time.  I think there are more talented horses in this field but maybe not more determined horses.  Peter Miller has done such a great job training this horse and 6F looks like his best distance

Ninth Race
#5  Lia Juliana  Steve Knapp drops this horse in half and I think is spotting her to try and win a race.  Note she has ran very well over this Del Mar surface last year so the combination of this surface and the drop might get this 8-1 ML shot home

#10  Suances Flower  This horse drops a few levels as well and the 6 year old mare willl probably be sitting close to the pace and the outside post should allow Pedroza to work out a good trip

#1  Unkep Rendez Vous  Horse cuts back to sprinting today and drops down a couple levels.  Bejarano will sit off the pace and try and mow them down late

Tenth Race
#6  Horizontalyspeakin  The connections claimed this 3 year old gelding for $75,000 in his debut when he was 11-1 that day and ran 4th so they saw something they really liked in him as this is a gutsy move.  They have ran him twice since the claim and he hasn't finished better than 4th.  Today they remove the blinkers and the works look like he might have woken up a little in the mornings since the equipment change.  Lets hope this translates into the afternoon

#1  Layton Register  Certainly the horse to beat shipping in from Churchill.  0 for 7 lifetime but has been very close to breaking thru.  Nakatani will have to carve out a trip and if he doesn't get the horse in trouble might be hard to beat

#9  Mi Hijo  Peter Miller tries this horse on the turf for the first time along with stretching him out.  He keeps the blinkers on and if his form translates to the turf he has a legit shot.

I appreciate everyone taking the time to read my selections and analysis.  Good Luck today and if there are any individual questions, comments, or feedback feel free to email me at JimmyQRacing@yahoo.com

All the Best,
JimmyQ




Saturday, July 27, 2013

Time to make some $$ at Del Mar

July 27, 2013

A full 10 race card for us to spend our Saturday afternoon with from Del Mar. Does it really get any better than this!?!?!?! Yesterday was one of those days I just couldn't get one of my big daily doubles finished so I was forced to play a little more aggressive with the win money in the last race and it ended up paying off.  Now onto today's card with my selections and thoughts.

First Race
#2 Night Dance  I think this horse may end up on the lead and that's probably where she needs to be if she is going to win this race.  Mike Mitchell drops this horse in for 25k after putting 6 solid workouts into her.  The workout on July 15th seems to answer the question whether she will like the Del Mar surface.  I think Martin Garcia plays catch me if you can

#3 Skinny Genes  This is the dropper in the field as Peter Miller trains the horse for the first time.  He drops the horse and adds blinkers which is typically a sign the connections are really targeting today's race.  Even with the blinkers she will probably sit mid to back of the pack and try and make one big run

#7 Romantic Wish  Bill Spawr claimed this horse for 25k last time at Hollywood Park off of Eddie Truman who is only a 4% trainer.  Before that, she was in a barn for an 8% trainer so this is definitely a nice upgrade for the horse as Spawr is 21% and is 28% off the claim.  I look for a better effort today

Second Race
#2 Forever Juanito  I like this horse for a couple of reasons.  He is a 2 year old gelding whom they only paid $22,000 for so the fact they are still protecting this horse today in MSW company means they really like this animal.  He ran pretty well in his first start which was sprinting over the Hollywood Park turf.  It won't take much improvement today to break his maiden

#4 American Pride  Bob Baffert and speed..that is exactly what you will get from this horse.  Ran 4th in his debut after sitting close to the pace.  The additional furlong today might be what he needs to relax out on the lead

#6 Papa's Paisley  Just a hunch play here at a price as the horse has been working long and working well over the Del Mar surface. 

Third Race
#5 Julio's Gold  This is the first time the horse has ever ran over a synthetic surface and off a freshening should be ready to fire his best race.  I look for this horse to be on or near the lead.  Hoping she gets brave on the lead and never looks back

#10 U R Candy Girl  Candy Ride's are one of my favorite sires on the synthetic surfaces.  Last race was beaten as the 4-5 favorite in a similar spot.  She was claimed that day by Bill Morey who is 33% off the claim.  I think she'll have a much better showing today

#1 Katey Pie  The mystery horse in the field.  Personally I think this field is pretty weak so if this horse is ready to run there is no reason she can't shock at a BIG price. 

Fourth Race
#4 Sweet Marini  I get worried about a horse like this who has never passed a horse in her life.  Both of her wins was when she was in front but after looking at this race I'm not as concerned about it b/c she does look like she will be on the lead.  I think her main competition the 6 Doinghardtimeagain will concede the lead to her

#6 Doinghardtimeagain  Will probably sit just off the 4 Sweet Marini and try to pass her around the turn or in the stretch. I'm just hoping Sweet Marini digs in and holds her off

#7 Qiaona  Horse is cutting back and changing surfaces.  I don't think she is good enough to win this race but is running for minor awards

Fifth Race
#5 Twitch  I think she is spotted to win today and this isn't the strongest of groups so if she runs her race she should be getting her picture taken

#8 Now Hope  The horse won last time out after the drop down into maiden claiming ranks.  To me this is the time to play the horse back when maybe the light bulb might have come on and she felt what it was like to win a race.  Talamo will probably be aggressive with this horse and have her close to the pace

#10 Amulay  Trainer Charlie Stutts sends this horse out and again the competition is so weak in this field that this horse totally makes sense.  They ran the horse 6 days again here at Del Mar and are wheeling her right back and dropping her down in the claiming ranks probably where she belongs.  I'm rooting for Charlie as I was fortunate enough to have some beers with him a couple years ago at the 100-1 bar across the street from Santa Anita.  The old fella would be beyond thrilled to be in the winner's circle at Del Mar.

Sixth Race
#8 Magic Daddy  Firster for Baffert that cost $575,000.  Horse has been working lightning quick in morning and looks like another possible monster for this barn.  Like he needs another one!

#9 Carrytheteam  This horse is 10-1 on the ML and a first for John Sadler.  The Candy Ride Sire that they paid $475,000 so they saw something very promising in him.  Sadler is 22% with firsters but he is off to a bit of a slow start at Del Mar

#3 Chief Lion  Fast and long works in the morning seem to indicate that Eoin Harty has this one ready to run big in his debut.  Wouldn't be a complete shock

Seventh Race
#9 My Samurai Warrior  12-1 on the ML and one of the bigger prices I will be playing today.  I think the 4 year old gelding will really enjoy stretching out after back to back sprints.  Victor Garcia is only a 9% trainer but he is 21% when going from sprint/route and he and jockey Kevin Krigger are 18% together

#6 Bio Pro  This horse is coming out of cheaper races but has been improving so the connections are giving the 5 year old gelding a chance to show if he belongs with this company.  It won't take a major improvement from him to be right there at the wire

#1 Motown Men  To me this looks like Maldonado will have to try and send this horse to the lead from the rail.  This could also make like difficult for the 2 Tom's Tribute who will be the post time favorite and I'm trying to beat him because of what I forsee as a speed duel

Eighth Race
#1 Kettle Corn  Added blinkers last time and suddenly woke up and ran his career best beyer of a 112 in losing to Game on Dude in the Hollywood Gold Cup by a length.  He has a win over the Del Mar surface in his career so I think he'll fire another big race today and find himself in the winner's circle

#3 Paynter  What a comeback for Paynter firing a 114 beyer after almost a  year away from the races where he nearly lost his life.  Today is a big step up for him as he takes on stiffer competition but all signs indicate he will run a great race

#4 Liaison  The other Baffert horse with much less hype.  At one point Baffert really loved this horse as a 2 year old and had high expectations for him.  He has started to turn into that race horse he thought he had a couple years ago but against this group I think he'll only be able to be 3rd best

Ninth Race
#8 Corsa di Cavalli  Um, this horse has not been seen in nearly 2 years.  He clearly had a ton of talent at 2 as he won over this Del Mar surface in his first career start and put up a pretty good beyer.  The connections then tried him in the Del Mar Futurity but that was the last time he has been at the races.  A big drop today but the connections only paid $26,000 for him so I'm not that alarmed by this drop as the Del Mar purses are worth spotting your horses to win.  Long and fast workouts for him also is a good sign
#4 Bev's Finale  This horse is 12-1 on the ML but there is a reason I think he has a shot today.  This 4 year old gelding has only raced 3 times in his life and clearly has some issues staying healthy. Well today marks the first time this horse has ever been able to run back to back races as he ran only a few weeks ago.  The drop the horse in for 25k today and probably know he has health limitations so let's take a shot at winning a race while he is healthy.

#1 South Floyd  No mystery here as I think we know we're going to get speed from the rail with this horse.  He will attempt to take them gate to wire and he just might be able to do so

Tenth Race
#7 Iconic Spirit  This horse will try the turf for only the seond time.  What encourages me is that in her second career start the connections put her on the grass that day and she was actually bet down to the favorite before running a disappointing 7th.  Clearly they expected better from her on the surface and maybe today going long on the turf is the formula for her success

#9 Tappingintherain  Will be blazing up front and looks like the speed of the field.  I don't like playing speed horses on the turf at Del Mar but this one might be tough and there really aren't any concerns whether the horse will take to the turf.  She is bred well for it

#10 Passionate Diva  Price play and a private purchase horse from Europe.  Doug O'Neill has given the horse 7 months to get acclamated and the horse gets lasix for his US debut

Best of Luck out there today, I hope you all enjoyed reading and I'll be back tomorrow with a Sunday Del Mar blog

All the Best,
JimmyQ

Friday, July 26, 2013

Fired up for Friday Del Mar!!

Friday July 26th

Our second Friday card at Del Mar and here is to hoping the only thing that is cold today are the ICE COLD BEERS!  These late afternoon post times at Del Mar are what summer is all about.  The main track has seemed to be favoring inside speed so at some point these speed horses are going to get over bet & the jocks are going to get too agressive.  In my opinion, it will all start to even itself out soon.  I do not let what is a perceived bias affect my handicapping as it can cause a handicapper to get lazy.  Plain and simple, I'm looking for the "live" horses whether they be speed, stalkers, or down town closers.  Now on to today's card

First Race
#8 With a Miracle  This is a lightly raced 5 year old mare and to me this looks like the connections are spotting her to win. I wrote about this last week but with the larger purses at Del Mar, connections are less worried about losing a horse to a claim as long as they can take down the winner's share of the purse. I like the fact that off of a 10 month layoff they protected her in allowance company last out and although she ran 5th at big odds, today she should be in against competition she can handle.  Also a plus that Victor Espinoza keeps the mount.  Looks ready to run a biggie

#3 Warren's Assassin  To me this is the mystery horse having been off for almost a full year.  This horse was last seen at Del Mar in 2012 going a mile on the turf in a starter allowance race.  Gutierrez is strong off the long layoffs at 23% and he has been working her long in the morning and on the main track at Santa Anita. Those 2 things you normally wouldn't see if a horse wasn't sound. I expect this horse to sit mid pack and try and make one run turning for home

#9  Coco de Carchy  Last out broke her maiden with a career best 70 beyer number and the question stands, did the light bulb go on?  I'm not quite sold on her yet as I think she might of been up against a pretty bad group last time.  She'll have to move forward again today to repeat.

Second Race
#5 Sirocco Strike  I think this 6 year old gelding does his best work sprinting and on the turf.  Won last time by a nose at Hollywood Park.  Horse does not have any published works since that July 4th victory but Jeff Mullins might think he has this horse right where he wants him.  I'm hoping he sits right off the speed of the 1 and can pass him in the stretch

#1 Distinctiv Passion  This horse has never been on turf but has run well both on dirt & synthetic surfaces.  He looks like he possibly is the lone speed breaking from the rail and if he gets loose they all could be running for second.  The eye popping workout on July 18th must have been to make sure this horse is ready to run as fast as he can and as long as he can

#6 Rauschenberg  This horse hasn't been seen since last August at Del Mar but it appears Rauschenbergy runs well after being freshened.  This appears to be a one run horse.  He will probably sit pretty far back but he does have an explosive turn of foot.  If there is one negative it could be that this race is a little too short for him coming off such an extended layoff

Third Race
#6 Punxsutawney Phil  This horse is 10-1 ML.  He did take moderate action last time in an open MSW race at Hollywood Park.  The horse was speed and fade and actually eased in the lane.  The connections have put 3 solid works into the 2 year old gelding and dropped him down to Maiden 30.  Maybe this is just where he belongs and I'm hoping for an improved effort in his second career start

#5 Salt Power  Looks like the horse to beat but will be a very short price.  Most likely will be the speed of the speed. This one drops out of State Bred MSW company and has the bug rider Orozco riding him back, yet another indication there is only one strategy "SEND"

#1 Short Sword  A Mike Mitchell homebred that he trains and owns.  Limited works but some things to like about this one

Fourth Race
#4  Lady Asano  This is the 4th choice in ML of a 6 horse field but there are a few reasons I really like her.  I still remember that first race of her career last November when the connections dipped in and claimed this horse for $75,000 and she was almost 88-1 that day and barely picked up her feet and ran 8th.  They worked with her for 2 months and took off the blinkers and brought her back protected in a MSW race and she goes off almost 20-1 and guess what happens?  She wins by over 7 lengths. Boy did Sadler see something in this one and I was think WTF that day.  He wheeled her back in a G1 race 5 weeks later when she ran 7th in a field of 8 but didn't totally embarrass herself.  Today she is in a better spot and clearly the connections liked her to put up that kind of money.  They have given her 4 months off and put some really great works into her.  I think she is ready to run a big one today

#6  Atlantic Swing  Another price horse and another horse that hasn't been seen in over a year.  She may try to be close up to the pace and try and spring a huge upset

#1  Miss Radiance  She exits the same race as the 3 Branding and both of them were part of an unusual race where the pace setter ran a wicked 22.3 interior fraction and there was a loose horse causing concern with some of the other horses  The race broke down late and the 1 Miss Radiance had to survive what I believe was a rider's claim of foul by Gary Stevens on Branding.  Capable of repeating

Fifth Race
#6 Sweet Millicent  Probably going to go off your post time favorite as nobody is better at spotting their horses first out than Jerry Hollendorfer.  He is 25% in 1st starts and 42% when debuting in the maiden claiming ranks.  My opinion is this horse is probably good enough to be in MSW company but because of the competitive purses he will place the horse aggressively and say "If you want her then go ahead and give me $50,000 for her"  The good ole game of poker and she looks fit and ready to run first time out

#1  Mia's Storm  Definitely the stand out on the morning work tabs and breaking from the rail means Talamo will probably be aggressive and send this horse to the lead

#5 Diamonds Dena  Nothing more than a hunch play here as the horse has worked ok in the morning and Delgadillo and Glatt do some good work together at 22%

Sixth Race
#4 Darling Dodie  I'm looking for a nice stalking trip sitting just off the speed and looking to wear them down late.  I think Talamo should get a great trip with this horse and Mandella has placed her in a great spot today

#1 Sweet Assay  Expecting to see Gonzalez send this horse from the rail and try and get to the lead.  I think her best chance is to try and clear the other speed horses and attempt to steal this race

#6 Madre Luna  To me this horse is kind of a clunker upper and if the horses up front go crazy fast and the race falls apart this is the type of horse that could find herself in the winner's circle

Seventh Race
#11 Blueskiesnrainbows  Trying to pull off the HUGE upset as 15-1 ML in the Cougar Handicap.  I look for an aggressive rider like Pedroza to send him to the lead and if he doesn't get a lot of early competition might just have a chance to pull the shocker.  Last out he found himself on turf but I think that was purely to get him in a race with today's race targeted the entire time.  I think he'll show an improved effort today

#6  Sky Kingdom  Bob Baffert sends out what will be the post time favorite in Sky Kingdom.  Ran 3rd last time out in the Hollywood Gold Cup where unfortunately had to run against another Baffert, Game on Dude.  I remember after the race Baffert saying he really thought his 2 horses were going to run 1-2 that day.  Anyways, if he runs back to that race he'll be tough to beat but at probably 4-5 odds today.

#3  Oilisblackgold  This 6 year old gelding just seems like an honest horse who runs as hard as he can every single time.  If Sky Kingdom fails to fire today there is no reason Oilisblackgold can't be getting his picture taken

Eighth Race
#6 Here's to Rose  I love where this horse is spotted today.  The connections claimed this one 2 back for $50k off Baffert at Hollywood Park.  They started the horse a month later at the end of the Hollywood meet in a MSW race to protect her and I think save her for the Del Mar meet.  Today they drop her back in for a $40k tag, probably where she belongs and they go after the lucrative purse.  I think this one is going to be hard to beat

#3 Holiday N Newport  Another horse that was claimed off Baffert for $50k at BHP.  There are some things to like about this one too, but I think the 6 has more upside from a wagering perspective

#5  Elegant Bel  This one comes in 15-1 ML and has flashed some speed in her last 2 starts.  With the bug Orozco aboard will probably be on or near the lead and try to lead them as long as she can


Good Luck to all and thanks for reading.  Best of Luck at Del Mar!
All the best,
JimmyQ






Friday, July 19, 2013

Let's get this Party started at Del Mar

Friday July 19th, 2013

Our first Friday card of the Del Mar meet, and you have to love the 4pm Pacific start as it is a great way for the East Coaster's to kick off their Friday night and for us West Coaster's, it's our excuse to duck out of work early!  I will list my top 3 picks for each race and expand a little as to why I like each of the horses

First Race
#4 Toomanytomatoes Cody Autrey sends out the 4 horse in this race and he looks to be spotted beautifully.  With the scratch of the 7 Camelia Rose this will be your favorite as they go to post.  Many want to make a big deal of Autrey struggles in Southern California over the past couple of years. He was 0 for 18 at the BHP meet that ended last week and was 0 for 18 last year at Del Mar.  Well before you hold that against him let me point out a couple of things  He broke thru on opening day with a winner in the last race with Spring Up that paid $12.40.  Due to his struggles last year at Del Mar, they decided to do things diffferently this year.  Autrey brought his tack out west for the BHP meet to claim some horses and get settled in for Del Mar.  Although a trainer never wants to lose, I promise you their main objective all along was to win once they got to Del Mar.  He trains for his prominent ownership group of Ywachetta & James Driver.  So now back to Toomanytomatoes.  They dipped in and claimed this horse for 40k back on May 3rd.  They since put this horse in back to back allowance races, and in my opinion did this to ensure the horse would be theirs when they got to Del Mar to run for the bigger purses.  So today, they drop the horse back in for 40k and I guarantee you the horse will be claimed out of this race but if she wins today the connections also pick up a nice $31,800 check along with the $40,000 they'll get for the horse.
#5 Meltarib Ran second to Toomanytomatoes 2 back and they might just finish 1/2 again today
#3 Distant Image Horse is a bit cheap but seems sound and and sitting on a solid effort.  She exits her career best synthentic beyer number and she appears to be a better turf horse, so she has a chance to move up today

Second Race
#2 Manewal  Cody Autrey daily double anyone?  Horse drops off the face of the earth in terms of condition levels so someone might wonder is this horse sound?  I think drops like this are less suspicious at a prestigious meet like Del Mar where the purse money is great and everyone once to get their picture taken.  Again, I think this horse gets claimed from the connections and the workout on June 19th says this horse should be ready

#4 Luz Atticus  Light bulb seemed to come on last time and he exits an open condition 16k claimer and is in today with non winners of two life.  Should land a perfect trip

#3 Bubba Fizz  Gets back to sprinting today at 3 straight route races and might be heard from down the lane late

Third Race
#1 G'night  This is a morning line price at 10-1 and I think this race might just set up perfectly for the horse where he can sit in behind all the speed and try one big move late.  I think the horse is moving in the right direction and I liked seeing Espinoza ride the horse back

#4 My Slew   I had a hard time deciding between the 1 & 4 in this race as my top pick.  I like this horse because he seems to run well after being freshened.  The workout on July 6th was an impressive move from gate and note that Martin Garcia has ridden this horse in both of his wins

#8 Field Report  Too many second place finishes for me to endorse a horse like this to win.  If he wins, I tip my cap but he has burned a lot of gambler's money along the way.  Note in his 11 lifetime starts he has lost as the betting favorite in 7 of those races as well as being under even money in 5 of the starts.  If another horse looks him eye to eye in the stretch he might just settled for second or third again.

Fourth Race
#2 Magic Number  The horse should really enjoy the class relief today and she drops in for a new career high low of 20k.  To me this makes perfect sense because the connections only paid $15,000 for her at the Keeneland September sale in 2011.  For how cheap of a purchase she was it's time to start making some money on her and putting her at the level she belongs

#6  Hard Buns  This filly too should enjoy the class relief as today is the first time she has ever been in for a tag.  The only thing I don't love about her is that she never really improved when she shipped into Northern California where the competition should have been friendlier.  I think the connections have finally realized this may be where she belongs

#9 Fata Morgana  In only her second career start she has a chance to improve and try to pull a shocker

Fifth Race
#10  Tribal Tattoo  I love tribal rule sired horses on the synthetic surfaces and Doug O'Neill seems to really of taken his time bringing this filly to the races.  She has been working since April and gave her a little extra time off between drills once they got longer.  Some could view this as a negative but I think he was just giving her a chance to come along slowly. 

#Beth's My Babe  With the addition of blinkers and a race under her belt she should move forward today.  Connections may have tipped her hand with the blowout workout on this surface a few days ago.  Watch the tote board and if the $ shows up she is probably very live

#She's Flush  Orozco will probably have to send hard from the rail and just hope she can possibly clear the field.  If she gets loose she could be dangerous

Sixth Race
#1 Brother Pete This colt has come along nicely and seems to be improving with each race and I think as they continue to stretch him out he should only get stronger.  He needs to once again move forward to beat this group today but I think he sits a good pocket trip and tries to pounce on them turning for home

#8 Pure Loyalty  What can you say about Gary Stevens other than this guy is a hell of a rider. You have to take note of any horse he rides because he seems to give them a perfect ride 99% of the time.  I like the direction this horse is going in and he should be right there with a chance to win

#9 Horizon Sky  The horse has been knocking on the door in his last 2 efforts and you have to respect Jeff Mullins as he had a great BHP meet

Seventh Race
#1 Sprouts  I'd be concerned about this horse drawing the rail if she didn't have speed but she looks like she has enough speed to carve out a good trip.  She really moved up nicely last time after the additon of lasix

#4 Time for Angie  She might be Sprouts toughest competition in here.  She seems to be working well heading into this spot as she tries to turn the table on Sprouts

#2 Pay the Debt  Longshot who would be a shocker if she won but she might be around for a minor reward.  She shocked 2 back to break her maiden at 19-1

Eighth Race
#2 Brannaman  After dropping the horse in for 40k last time and stretching him out, Baffert gave the horse a little time to recover and brings him back sprinting for the same 40k tag, which I think is this horses game.  The race 3 back at Santa Anita was a very strong MSW race where he weakened late after briefly taking the lead.  It is put up or shut up time for the 4 year old gelding today

#4 Major Affair  Ron Ellis drops the horse in for a tag for the first time after disappointing last out at Hollywood.  Horse took a little action that day going off at 5-2 so maybe the class relief is just what this horse needs

#8 Sir Searsucker  The 3 year old gelding drops into Maiden Claiming ranks for the first time and shortens back up to 6.5 furlongs.  It would be special for Mitchell to win some races at Del Mar with his son-in-law riding for him.  I won't be shocked if this horse is getting his picture taken

Best of Luck to everyone playing the races today.
All the Best,
JimmyQ