Friday, August 21, 2015

Big Pick 6 Carryover at Del Mar- August 21, 2015

This blog will be completely dedicated to the Pick 6 with a carryover of 300k plus and is comprised of Races 2-7

RACE 2- Claiming 20,000 6 Furlongs
I went very deep in this race and will post my horses in order of preference
#8 Mistaken Identity (5/2)- Quite simply you just can’t ignore those works..WOW
#1 Shame On Alex (6/1)- Getting back to sprinting should be a big plus for him
#3 Sacred Ovation (8/1)- He won’t need to improve much to be a part of this group down the stretch
#2 High Test (7/2)- Broke very sharp last time and ran well last time.  Horse has been ITM 16/19 starts at the distance
#4 Limited Respone (10/1)- My comments on this one were “Not impossible” so I had to include
#5 Apollo Ten (15/1)- Needs to have a complete form turn around but if he does he’ll ring the bell at a big price to kick this sequence off

RACE 3- Claiming 40,000 Mile and Sixteenth (Turf)
Going 4 deep in this leg
#5 Loveenseek (3/1)- This horse will appreciate getting back to the turf…looks live
#8 Trifecta (5/2)- You can never ignore Phil D’Amato claim and on the turf
#2 Frat Boy (8/1)- AC Avila thought enough of this horse to claim at Keeneland in April….geld him and then put in for double the price he paid…horse didn’t run a lick that day as the favorite but was claimed by Gus Headley.  I’ll give him one more chance
#6 A Colt Following (12/1)- Only included this one b/c he seems to be improving and first time on Turf.  The Mystery horse in the field

RACE 4- Maiden Claiming 30,000 5.5 Furlongs
Went 3 deep in this one
#4 Kelly With A Twist (5/2)- Doug O’Neill with Tyler Baze aboard on a huge drop and adds blinkers
#10 Nusret (4/1)- First time gelding on the drop and Bejarano stays on board after being beaten as the post time favorite back in May at SA baby race
#6 Dixie Writer (3/1)- Might be in the best form of all horses in the race and Iggy will probably be gunning this one out of the gate. You’ll always get an honest ride from Iggy

RACE 5- Optional Claimer 20,000 Statebred/N1X- One Mile
Going 4 deep in this leg
#5 Nina’s Dragon (4/1)- Can’t ignore a winner of 5 straight shipping in here.  4 for 7 at a mile…should be a confident animal
#6 Storm Comin Thru (3/1)- Horse has improved drastically the past year and seems to be working well
#7 Chief of Staff (2/1)- How can’t you include this horse?  looks ready to go
#1 Guy Code (15/1)- Included a price horse as he stretches out from the rail.  If Q sends and can get clear it could be interesting…otherwise horse won’t be a factor

RACE 6- 80k Stakes Mile and 3/8 (Turf)
Single here
#9 Scooter Bird (7/2)- CNak has been on this horse many times including 3 wins.  I think Sadler has this horse right today and ready to fire

RACE 7- Maiden Claiming 20,000 One Mile- Fillies
Another Single and another 9
#9 Olympic Lady (3/1)- Dropping in class today and stretching out after having an even running line last time out.  Let’s see if Q can make Q a wealthy man to close things out

Total Ticket Is $576 but if this pool gets $1 Million new money today you are talking about 0% takeout which means it’s a great gamble
Good Luck today!

Saturday, August 15, 2015

Horse of the Day from Del Mar- Saturday 8/15

#7 Zipessa  (4-1)

Stidham scratched her out of an 80 grander on the Turf yesterday to go in the Oaks and a $300,000 purse today.  Very confident move on his part.  She is 2 for 2 lifetime and I think her last was much more impressive than the 80 beyer she earned.  If you go back and look at my July 17th blog I was talking about how she just might be something special.  If she is able to win today and go 3 for 3, she will be well on her way to making a name for herself.  Some might question why Bejarano is riding the other Stidham horse, Her Emmynency, and it's my opinion he probably commited to her a while back and when they cross entered Zipessa the mount freed up for Prat to pick up.  Great Grass rider so have full confidence going to the window.  Good Luck

Suggested Plays
Race 8
Win Money on the 7

Race 8
Daily Double to the 9th race


Friday, July 17, 2015

Selections from DEL MAR for Friday July 17th

Maiden Claiming $80,000, 5 Furlongs
#4 Benesh (4-1)
This John Sadler colt makes his 3rd start of his career and despite a regression from his first race Sadler decides to keep the blinkers on.  His 7/17 drill from the gate was 3rd best of 76 works that day and may be a sign that the blinks have awakened him.  I’m expecting his best effort today
#3 Last One Standing (4-1)
This firster for Peter Miller looks ready to run first time out.  Hard to ever toss a Peter Miller 2 year old as he hits at an 18% clip with them
#7 D. Shifflett (3-1)
The sire of this 2 year old colt is Valid Expectations who is an A first time sire according to Brisnet Sire Stats winning at a 16% clip first time out with runners.  Trainer Mike Stidham is 20% with 2 year olds and he has enticed Bejarano to pilot this one today.  Looks live

Claiming $8,000, 6 Furlongs
#2 No Contingency (3-1)
Went gate to wire last time out for the first time in the Jeff Bonde barn.  Would expect similar tactics today and looks like he is sharp and on his game
#8 Half Dome Dude (9-2)
This 7 year old might have needed his last race to get him back into racing shape and I expect a much better effort today that could put him right in the thick of things
#7 Big Sugar Soda (8-1)
This one is now in the barn of Peter Miller and it looks like he is experimenting a bit with the addition of blinkers.  Miller is 17% first time blinks and he has put 4 works into the horse since his last effort to try and get him comfortable with the equipment.  A bit of a mystery horse
Maiden Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile and a Sixteenth
#11 Proud Captive (7-2)
Second time Lasix for the Ron Ellis trainee and a switch from turf to dirt which Ellis has an incredible 30% win rate with a strong ROI of $3.59.  Should be live
#9 Miltee (5-1)
Another one going from turf to dirt but unfortunately for trainer Simon Callaghan he is 0 for 23 when doing this.  He does score at a 26% clip with maiden claimers and the 3 year old gelding does have a nice series of works over the dirt.  This $230,000 purchase has definitely been a disappointment but against bottom level maidens he could graduate today
#8 Ghost of Navigator (12-1)
This is a first time gelding who has done his best work over the conventional dirt.  He exits 2 turf races up north where he failed to threaten.  Trainer has some great turf to dirt stats 26% and conventional dirt stats 30%.  Could wake up today

State bred Maiden Special Weight, 5 Furlongs
#2 Getoffmyback (3-1)
Had the daunting task of breaking from the rail in his debut and the horse outside of him did come in a bit out of the gate forcing Talamo to take him all the way back.  He ran on nicely down the lane and galloped out past the winner.  I’d expect him a tad closer to the pace today and be making his move around the turn.  If he moves forward could be tough
#7 Captain Akers (5-2)
Exits the same race as Getoffmyback and actually finished ahead of him last out.  Was right on the pace and took a brief lead in the stretch.  This one will definitely be part of the pace
#1 Tengas Ransom (4-1)
Like I mentioned earlier, it’s always a tough post to draw in your debut but trainer Jeff Mullins looks like he had his barn pointed to this meet.  This one might just be ready to fire first time after a great 4F work on July 5th

Optional Claiming $62,000/N2X, 5 Furlongs (Turf)
#8 Doodetta (6-1)
This will be my aggressive single in the Pick 5 along with my Double of the Day.  I think Drysdale has this one getting better and better and since her latest win she posted a blazing workout on July 5th that was second best of 74 works for the day.  There is a good chance she could be feeling full of herself.  Expecting another strong effort
#10 Pica (6-1)
Was claimed by the Eddie Truman barn in her latest win and Truman is dangerous with these types of horses. Also attracts Bejarano to ride so all signs pointing up for this one
#4 Hooligan (6-1)
Trainer Wesley Ward originally had 2 starters in this race but with the defection of the 1, he only has this one running.  He owns this 3 year old that should be on the pace

Filly Conditional Allowance $78,000, 6 Furlongs
#1 Scherzinger (3-1)
Threw in a clunker last time but Hollendorfer has given her some time to try and get her back in her best form.  Wouldn’t be shocked if she ran a big one today and Mike Smith is back aboard and take note he has ridden her in all 4 of her career wins.  Expecting much better

#6 Baruta (3-1)
Trainer Richard Mandella has two in this race and I’m using this one but not the other in my wagers.  I expect her to be out towards the front and possibly trying to take them gate to wire.  Going from turf to dirt where Mandella is successful 18% of the time
#5 Uzziel (2-1)
This is your morning line favorite and certainly has some back class.  Cutting back in distance so conditioning shouldn’t be any kind of issue with this one.  Certainly should be in the mix

Optional Claiming $80,000/N1X, 1 Mile (Turf)
#7 Zipessa (3-1)
Impressive effort first time out at Arlington Park as she won by over 6 lengths.  Her sire is City Zip who could run on any surface so her form should translate very well to the turf today.  Bejarano picks up the mount on the Chicago Invader.  Could create a name for herself today
#5 Sweet (6-1)
I expect her to take another step forward today for Richard Mandella and if she does she should be right there in the money
#3 Conquest Curlgirl (7-2)
This certainly is the class of the field and very well could wow the field today.  She comes out of a solid 3rd place effort in the Grade 2 Summer Oaks.  The only question mark is if her form will translate to turf.  Mystery horse

State bred Filly Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs
#3 Golden Mamba (12-1)
This one goes from turf to dirt and might be the surface this one wanted all along.  Could move forward at a nice price
#4 Warren’s Honey Bee (12-1)
Flashed early speed on the turf in her April debut.  If she can sustain that speed for a bit longer today and she takes to the dirt she could give her backers a thrill close to the front
#2 Urloveneverfails (5-2)
Solid debut effort and certainly the one they’ll need to catch and beat today.  Hoping Golden Mamba or Warren’s Honey Bee freak on the dirt today
Here is how I played the card Today
.50 Pick 5 Wager
2,3,4,5,7,8/2,5,7,8/5,8,9,11/1,2,7/8= $144
Double of the Day for $30
8/1,6= $60
Pick 3 for $10
8/1,6/7= $20
Late Double for $10
5,7/3,4= $40
Total Investment today $264
Good Luck with all your selections


Saturday, August 30, 2014

Saturday 8/30 DEL MAR PLAY

1 Mile and Sixteenth (Turf)
Alw 40,000s

#7 Hog's Hollow (9-2)

This 8 year old gelding has some serious back class, but obviously had some health issues that kep him sidelined for almost a year and a half.  I think he is starting to feel a little bit like his old self after his most recent victory over the main track at Del Mar in a claiming ranks event.  Gets back on the turf today and I like his tactical speed which should allow Mike Smith to sit close in a race that I don't see a lot of speed.  Also worked last week and is protected today which are two more great signs for me.

Good Luck,

Friday, August 29, 2014

Friday 8/29/14 DEL MAR PLAY

1 Mile (Turf)
Filly- Alw 40,000s

#4 Intoxicating Move (9-2)

I drew a line thru her last effort b/c that was the race that involved that horrific spill and basically any chance she had of winning that day, as the luke warm favorite, went out the window.  I think stretching her out is going to be just what she needs and she does look to possess a powerful late kick which is key for any turf mile race.  Nakatani jumps aboard today and does his best work on the turf.  Look for her to be coming late. 

Good Luck,

Thursday, August 28, 2014


Md Sp Wt 75k

#6 Noble Bird (5-2)

Horse should have won for fun last time out.  My only question is why did this horse work 4 days ago at Arlington Park unless they plan on scratching in this spot.  I don't have that answer but if he does scratch that would explain it, and that they might be eyeing some kind of stakes race at AP soon.  If he goes then I don't think we get 5-2 and I don't think he loses

Best of Luck,

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Thursday 8/20/14 DEL MAR PLAY

5.5 Furlongs
Filly- Alw 40,000s

#2 Q' Viva (9-2)

Impressive winner last out as a QRacing play of the Day to break her maiden.  She had a very professional effort making a nice run and circling the field around the turn to win going away.  She'll need to move forward again today against tougher but she has had 2 solid drills since her victory including a 4f work in 47 seconds that was best of  62 horses on that day.  I think she is full of herself right now and the cut back in distance won't be a problem as to my eye she appears to be tactical.  I look for her to run huge in this spot.

Good Luck,